Building a Sports Betting Model

The sports betting industry is huge in the United States, and it is only expected to get bigger. There is a $150 billion industry in the United States alone. 

With that in mind, there has to be a reason why so many platforms are popping up to handle all of this demand. Well, there is. That reason is that most people end up losing money betting on sports rather than winning money. 

The ones that do win money have a system that likely includes a sports betting model. 

Building a sports betting model is not easy, and a lot of people may not even know where to begin. Well, this is your bookie business model guide. 

Tracking Statistics 

One underrated thing to the casual observer is how important statistics are to a successful sports betting model. This is because you need some facts to base your model on, and numbers do not normally lie. 

Once you track enough statistics and takedown data, you can go further with those numbers and look for weaknesses that you can exploit. 

An even easier way to do this is by using those numbers to create an algorithm that can show you those weaknesses for you. 

The next question you might have is what statistics you should be tracking specifically? Well, the answer is everything that you can think of. 

Keep track of records, home and away wins, how teams do with a certain amount of turnovers, a certain amount of innings pitched, a certain amount of field goals made, etc. 

You need to give yourself the most opportunities possible to take advantage of a possible strength or weakness that one side of the betting action has. Once you discover what is happening with statistics, you can use part or all of your model to exploit that and profit. 

Statistics help you discover the strengths and weaknesses of one side of a bet by getting into our next topic, trends. 

Noting Trends 

Statistics pay off a lot by giving you the ability to track trends that provide you with certain evidence that teams or players have a track record of being on one side or the other of a bet. 

Let’s use the NFL as an example. In 2021, the Dallas Cowboys had the best record against the spread of any team in the NFL at 13-5. 

This means that the Cowboys covered 13 of the 18 spreads in that season, which is 72.2%. Considering that the average bettor is lucky to reach 52.4% of their bets to break even, that would be a great trend to take advantage of to get a little ahead of the game. 

Another example is trying to bet on the over/under. A lot of public money likes to go on the over. But you should look at every angle when it comes to this. 

That is because, in 2021, you could have taken great advantage of some teams that just could not score many points. That would be the Denver Broncos, who went under their game point totals in 12 of 17 games during the 2021 season. 

So, if you followed that trend throughout the year, you would have hit the under over 70% of the time. 

Keeping up with these trends allows you to set targets for what games you want to bet on in the near future and what specific bets you are going after. Finding one trend in a category can also help you discover more teams that may be on one side or another of a trend there. 

Being Adaptable 

Knowing your statistics and noting the trends associated with them are a great start to building your model, but things are not always going to go smoothly. You may be able to take advantage of a trend for a while, but these sportsbooks know what they are doing as well. 

See; eventually, they will figure out where they are losing money within a sport or even within a team. That is because they have their own data and algorithms that keep track of all of this. 

What this means for you is that once sportsbooks catch on, they will adjust the lines they put out when it comes to that trend to try and make it more difficult for a bettor to take advantage of this. 

It is important to realize when this happens and know when to walk away from a trend. You will need to pay attention to the lines closely, and if you think something looks off, you will have to walk away. 

A perfect example is if the Broncos above usually had point totals between 40-42 in their games. Then, once the sportsbooks catch on to them going under, they might move their lines down to the 36-38 range. 

Sure, they could be playing an equally bad scoring team that might draw that total down for one game. However, if it becomes a trend, that is the sportsbooks adjusting to the situation and making it more difficult for you to capitalize on this. 

Know the Public 

Some sharp sports bettors have a very simple strategy of fading the public. There is a good reason for this, considering that very few bettors actually make a profit from sports betting. 

So, you can build a model by tracking what the public bets on certain games and then going in the opposite direction. 

One example might be the Kansas City Chiefs during the first half of the 2021 season. At first, they struggled and were sitting around .500, but the public loved them and placed a lot of bets on them. 

However, that could have been a time to take a stand against the public and bet against them. They did not cover many of those games early in the season. 

Another example would be in the 2021 SEC Championship between Georgia and Alabama. This was one of the most one-sided handles ever, with Georgia receiving 94% of the bets in this game. 

They were undefeated at the time, and Alabama looked lackluster in their prior game against Auburn, barely squeaking out a win that went through multiple overtimes. 

However, the Crimson Tide recovered here, and despite only receiving 6% of the bets, they not only covered the spread as an underdog, but they won the game outright by multiple possessions. 

Sometimes, the public is guilty of hopping on a hot team such as Georgia or fading a cold team such as Alabama at that time. However, the sharp bettors take note of this and consider it a potential opportunity to cash in. 

Know how the public perceives certain teams because the sportsbooks will certainly make lines around that. If you have a solid idea of how that works, then you can make some serious money. 

Test Your Model 

So, you looked at the statistics, caught the trends, perceived what the public wants to do in certain games, and are prepared for the worst. Now, what do you do? 

The answer is you have to test your model out. At the end of the day, no model is perfect, and you will have to go through trial and error to make sure that you have the right model for successful sports betting. 

Track all of the data that you collect with this, and you are going to have to try this several times before you know for sure if your ideal model works. 

Doing this allows you to either confirm that your original model theory was correct or allows you to discover the possible flaws that your model has before you lose serious money by deciding to go all-in with it. 

Testing this consistently will also make you better at analyzing the data associated with it. That will let you discover quicker what you are doing right and wrong. 

Suppose it ends up being wrong or not being able to make a consistent profit. In that case, that knowledge on the analysis could give you an alternative idea to either make a new model for sports betting profit or tweak your original one. 

Start Building a Sports Betting Model 

Building a sports betting model is not a simple process, but it can be done. If you take your data and analysis seriously while being prepared to be adaptable, you could find some success in this field. 

But maybe you would rather be on the other side of the sportsbook and use this knowledge to collect bets. If so, you can start a six-week free here today.