Build a Sports Betting Model

Did you know that many professional sports gamblers win approximately 58%-59% of the time?

While barring these bettors from your bookie business is a good idea, it’s important that you prepare for the possibilities of contending with knowledgeable players. Creating and implementing a stats-based sports betting model is the foremost way to maintain your house edge and continue to make a steady profit.

But what is a sports betting model? How can you set one? Read on to answer these questions and learn how to make accurate projections.

What Is a Sportsbook Model?

A sports betting model is a method of forecasting the probability of a specific outcome of a sporting event.

You will create a quantified list of all possible outcomes that showcases which are more likely to take place and which are less likely. The goal of a sports betting model is to understand various sports betting possibilities and statistically understand which are most likely to result in payout. It’s metrics-based and far more accurate than simply guessing based on previous individual scores.

The Purpose of Gathering Sports Gambling Statistics

Players often use a sports betting model to identify profitable opportunities in sports betting. As a bookmaker, understanding this model will help you to find where you should limit betting. If a bet has a high probability of winning, you can limit the amount that players might put down on this team or player.

Sports betting lines also can help bookies like you to determine the favorite vs the underdog in any given match. This means that you can give players that work with your sportsbook more accurate information prior to placing bets. Players will feel more confident working with you rather than competitors since you’ve done your research and have more data-backed information available to them.

Define Objectives for Your Sports Betting Model

Setting limits and betting lines are great endgames for setting a sports betting model, but you will need to determine other short-term objectives as well. Some possible goals might include:

  • Gauging the potential of all sporting event participants
  • Comparing this potential with that of opposing teams to determine a data-backed probable outcome
  • Find the average outcome of all given games and events for a team or player
  • Create a point of reference that you can compare all teams against
  • Understand how much value a team or player has in the betting market
  • Project how much money you’ll make from bettors during a given event or season
  • Identify opportunities that most players wouldn’t consider so that you heighten your house edge

Clearly define your specific goals on paper or in a digital document. This will give you something concrete to work toward. You won’t stumble blindly through the betting model generation process with no intended outcome.

Understand Probability Theory

Before setting a betting model, it’s also important that you understand the fundamentals of probability theory. It treats the idea of probability as a mathematical equation and expresses these probabilities via axioms. These axioms are simply propositional statements that are self-evidently true based on numeric data.

While you can probably develop a decent predictive model with basic math, it’s going to be no match for seasoned bettors. To become a true sportsbook behemoth, you’ll need to learn as much as you can about probability theory and develop betting models with its principles. This lets you manipulate numbers in new and interesting ways so that you can take unique chances on your sportsbook website.

Collect Quantifiable Data

At this point, you have all of the knowledge that you need to create multiple sports betting models. It’s time to put this knowledge into practice and collect numeric information about teams, players, events, and plays.

Think about what you’re looking to quantify so that you can meet your predetermined objectives. Go to the websites of those teams as well as to common sports score tracking sites. Collect any information that you see on these teams from reputable sources and jot them all down into a digital document (like an Excel spreadsheet).

Make sure that sports betting data are recent and accurate. This means looking at dates and confirming information by looking at multiple sources. You also want to make sure that you use data that you have a full understanding of- if you can’t interpret data, you can’t use it to create a sports betting model.

Create Projections for Your Model

Once you have all relevant data, you can then begin constructing your model. You generally will use a power rating model to make this happen. Power ratings for bets simply refer to the quality of the target team vs the league average.

Based on this rating system, you can calculate the expected points for your target team at both home and away games. 

You will need to find the offense rating and defense rating first. Then you can average them together for the total rating. Do this for both home and away games since many teams perform differently in varying locations.

You can then convert total ratings into expected points. Multiply your total rating with the league average points to get this metric. You then are ready to find the win probability of your team by comparing the team’s expected points to all opposing teams’ expected points.

Integrate Probabilities Into Your Sportsbook

You can then integrate these statistics into your pay-per-head (PPH) sportsbook. It’s fairly easy to come up with lines based on these metrics. You should be able to easily compare favored teams with underdogs.

It also is simple to figure out where you’ll want to restrict betting to smaller sums. However, implementing these restrictions can be a challenge. If you’re unsure of how to do this, talk with our experienced agents on our 24-hour hotline for immediate help.

Get Started With Pay Per Head Services

While setting a sports betting model can be a challenge, it’s critical if you want to be a successful agent. Now that you know how to set one of these models, it’s time to get started.

Ace Per Head is committed to providing you with the top pay-per-head sportsbook service on the market. Create your package to get started with your six weeks free of our fully managed web services.