The Art of Oddsmaking
What Does It Entail?
Beyond math and scientific formulas used to predict the winner of a sporting event, oddsmaking is an art, because it involves real mathematics combined with a hefty dose of gut feeling. As any bookmaker worth their salt knows, the bookie odds on a game are not necessarily the real probabilities of the outcome of that match.
How Are Betting Odds Created?
It is fair to say that bookies don’t really care if they are right or wrong in their predictions, instead, they are more concerned with eliminating risk and increasing profits. So, yes there is a lot of number crunching and data mining to come up with the real probabilities of an outcome, but oddsmaking goes beyond that.
The first step of setting a line is based purely on mathematics, team, and player stats are analyzed along with a bunch of variables including weather, injured players, momentum, time of day the game is being played and more. The computer algorithm that analyzes all this data is designed to come up with the true odds of an outcome.
Once line managers have this information is when the real work begins, you see the most important part of setting bookie odds for a package is understanding the agent’s customer base. This can become tricky when you are the leading pay per head service and you are taking action for thousands of agents whose players have very different betting patterns.
But this ability is precisely what makes www.AcePerHead.com the best in the business. Much like sharp players, the line managers at Ace are always looking for an edge, adding or shaving points from the sports betting line based on what they know the public will be willing to pay.
Finding a balance where the line is not so far off the wall that you are exposing the agent unnecessarily or so guarded that nobody finds the line interesting, is the real art form in this business.
How do Line Managers Know How Much the Players are Willing to Pay?
Every line manager has a different approach, but with so much technology available these days to scrutinize the behavior of bettors, it has become more an exact science than guesswork.
The betting software used by online price per head services, record every bet and its outcome, making data analysis a lot faster and easier. In the past, line managers were forced to rely on incomplete information basing themselves on the betting patterns of the biggest players and a few of the better known smaller players. This made it very difficult to cater to the specific needs of agents, which meant that every week some agents would suffer at the expense of others.
With the help of the team of developers that is on staff at AcePerHead.com, additional reports and data analyzing capabilities have been added to the software which gives a clearer sense of what the line should be for each agent. This level of line personalization is unheard of amongst the competition, and that is a key component to the success rate that Ace has demonstrated over the years.
Getting back to the question, how do the line managers know how much the public is willing to overpay, the market defines that, bettors are a lot more predictable than they would like to acknowledge, and it is this predictability that allows the line managers to determine what the perfect balance is in a line.
As an example, players listen to the sportscaster’s hype, the best evidence of this is the betting patterns of bettors on a team that is on a winning streak. Sportscasters are trying to increase ratings for their show, so they talk a lot about teams who are winning, in turn, the public buys into the hype which opens the door to oddsmakers to hike up the price on the line.
In a perfect world, agents would not have sharp players on their packages, however, the reality is that most agents have a mixture of public and sharp players, this means the line has to be solid to generate interest on both sides without giving professional players an opportunity to hurt the agent’s bottom line.
How do Line Managers Keep Track of All the Different Lines?
So, we have established that Ace Pe Head is able to customize their bookie odds according to the agent’s needs, but you may be wondering how they keep track of all these lines from the time they are first posted until the game goes off the board.
Again, the answer is technology, thanks to their comprehensive and extremely flexible sports betting software, they are able to create thousands of line types and player profiles. With the use of a complex series of algorithms, they can automate line movement across an infinite number of line types. The software is so advanced that it can be programmed to move a line based on specified criteria when the master line is adjusted.
If Bookmakers Rely on Computers, then Oddsmaking Cannot Be an Art
If an artist uses a computer to make his creations, are these not considered art? Oddsmaking will remain an art form at least for the foreseeable future because there is no computer model that can accurately predict human behavior.
And it is that ability to predict what a player’s move will be that makes the job so exciting, but again, the main goal of an oddsmaker is not to be right but to generate interest and reduce risk to increase profits.
Does AcePerHead.com have the best betting odds?
With everything that has been said in the above paragraphs I feel there is no doubt that as a price per head service, AcePerHead.com is head and shoulders above all its competitors.
There is no such thing as a perfect betting odds, there are, however, personalized betting odds that offer agents increased profitability and players a more enjoyable betting experience. And no other pay per head company is as skilled in creating these as Ace Per Head.
Can AcePerHead.com Create Customized Odds for my Package?
Yes absolutely, as long as you can clearly communicate what your needs are, the line managers at www.AcePerHead.com can create a line types specifically for your package.